Will Donald Trump Resign?

With the midterm elections upon us, President Donald Trump faces a real possibility that would fundamentally alter the remainder of his presidency: Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, or both.

For most presidents, losing congressional control is an unwelcome but manageable consequence of the American electoral system. For Trump, whose political identity has been built around winning, personal loyalty, projecting strength, and dominating opponents, the consequences could be both personal and devastating.

No longer would he be able to snap his fingers and get whatever he wants. He’d instead be forced to spend the next two years whining about how nobody among the obstructionist Democrats will let him do his job, and everything is their fault.

Sounds like the last 10 years…only on steroids.

This raises an intriguing question: Would Trump decide that resigning from the presidency would be preferable to spending his final two years battling a hostile Congress?

Such a decision would be extraordinary. Only one American president, Richard Nixon, has resigned from office. Yet Trump has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to challenge political conventions, making the possibility worth examining.

Nightmare 1: Losing the House

A Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives would immediately transform Trump's political environment. With a Democratic speaker, Republican control over the legislative agenda would disappear. Major Trump initiatives would undoubtedly be blocked, funding battles would intensify, and congressional oversight would become considerably more aggressive.

Probable Democratic committee chairs have already announced there would be more active investigations into presidential decisions, administration spending, corruption, potential conflicts of interest, immigration enforcement, and the conduct of senior officials. Subpoenas could compel testimony and the production of documents. Congressional hearings could dominate news coverage for months, pushing the narcissist-in-chief (HORRORS!) off the front page.

Trump experienced something similar during his first presidency, when Democrats regained the House in 2018. The resulting investigations culminated in his first impeachment in December 2019. A Democratic House could arguably initiate another impeachment proceeding, although as we saw with the first two impeachment efforts, such activity doesn’t automatically mean removal from office.

The political implications would extend beyond legislation, though. Trump would face the prospect of watching opponents control the national conversation through televised hearings, committee investigations, and public challenges to his administration's credibility.

For a president who places enormous importance on controlling the narrative, this could prove particularly frustrating.

Nightmare 2: Losing the Senate

If Democrats captured both chambers, Trump's remaining presidency would absolutely become substantially more difficult. Because the Senate possesses powers that the House does not, particularly regarding presidential appointments and impeachment trials.

A Democratic Senate could slow or block judicial nominees, Cabinet appointments, and other executive branch confirmations. Combined Democratic control of Congress could also make passage of major Republican legislation exceptionally difficult.

However, Democrats would still confront an important constitutional limitation: removing a president following impeachment requires a two-thirds vote of senators present.

Even with a Democratic majority, obtaining that level of support would be difficult without substantial Republican defections. Yet with Trump now a lame duck and the MAGA movement arguably losing steam, at least some of the 16 Republican senators up for re-election in 2028 may see it to their respective advantage to consider the health of the nation and their oath to uphold the Constitution over the whims of their president.

Depending on which direction things go, Trump could remain president while confronting relentless opposition, legislative gridlock, and continuing investigations…at least in part because he knows he’ll beat the rap in an impeachment trial.

The result might resemble a prolonged political siege, with both sides positioning themselves for the 2028 presidential election.

Nightmare 3: A Democratic President

The immediate order of succession for president is Vice-President, followed by the Speaker of the House. Should Trump decide he doesn’t want to deal with two years of a hostile Congress, his resignation would immediately elevate J.D. Vance to the Oval Office. Vance would undoubtedly want to install a new Vice-President, but that new Vice-President would have go be confirmed by a majority of both houses of Congress.

Should the Democrats win either or both houses of Congress, their refusal to confirm a Republican Vice-President would keep a Democrat – presumably Hakeem Jeffries – as the next in line for president. Arguably, anything happening to take Vance out of action would make Jeffries the president as we go into the 2028 primaries.

How Things Would Work

Under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Vance would immediately become president if Trump resigned. That creates a potentially attractive succession scenario.

Trump could claim credit for installing a younger Republican president while remaining the most influential figure in the conservative movement. Vance would inherit the presidency before the 2028 election, gaining valuable executive experience and the advantages of incumbency. Trump would presumably not hand over the keys to the Oval Office without promise of a full and unconditional pardon, much like Richard Nixon made with Gerald Ford in 1974.

Trump, meanwhile, could return to private life, political rallies, media appearances, and business interests without the daily responsibilities of governing. He could continue influencing Republican politics, endorsing candidates and criticizing Democrats without being directly accountable for the administration's performance.

However, the arrangement would involve considerable risks. Vance has already shown he is willing to explore an independent political identity. Republican donors and elected officials might redirect their loyalties toward the sitting president, and Trump would quickly discover that relinquishing formal power also diminishes his political influence. He could be counted on to start doing more unusual things just to keep the spotlight on him.

Furthermore, a President Vance would inherit the same hostile Congress. Republican congressional losses would not disappear merely because Trump left office.

Timing a Transition

Should Trump decide to step down, it wouldn’t happen before January 21, 2027. According to the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

As the next president will be sworn into office on January 20, 2029 (814 days from now!), Trump stepping down on January 21 opens the door to Vance completing the next two years PLUS potentially being elected twice more. If Trump were to resign prior to January 21, Vance would only be eligible to be re-elected once.

What the October Numbers Suggest

A Pew Research Center survey published October 15 found 55% of Americans expect Democrats to win the House. Nate Silver (October 20) predicted a 75% chance of the Democrats taking the senate.

A narrow House majority might generate investigations and gridlock while leaving Trump substantial executive authority. A sweeping Democratic victory could be interpreted as a national rejection of his leadership, intensifying pressure within the Republican Party.

But electoral defeat alone would not establish that resignation was imminent.

Defeat? Or Personal Victory?

Trump's political career suggests that he is particularly sensitive to public perceptions of success and failure. Rather than accepting responsibility if Republicans suffer substantial losses next week, Trump would blame congressional Republicans, party leadership, disloyal candidates, unfavorable media coverage, or insufficient voter enthusiasm.

He might argue that he had already accomplished his most important objectives and that continuing to serve under an obstructionist Congress would accomplish little. In this hypothetical scenario, resignation could be presented not as surrender, but as a deliberate decision to reject Washington's dysfunction.

Trump might declare that he had restored American strength, accomplished his mission, and was now turning responsibility over to a younger generation.

Of course, whether voters would buy the BS is another matter. Resignation would almost certainly be interpreted by critics as an admission of political defeat. But Trump could attempt to persuade his supporters that he was leaving on his own terms.

The critical distinction is between actually winning and successfully persuading an audience that one has won.

Will He Really Go?

Trump has demonstrated an extraordinary willingness to fight political opponents, even when the odds appear unfavorable. The presidency offers substantial executive authority that congressional opposition cannot simply eliminate. After all, Trump would retain his veto, command of the executive branch, and significant foreign-policy powers.

Besides, resignation would create a permanent historical association with Nixon, which Trump might find especially objectionable. And let’s not forget that leaving office would not end congressional investigations or eliminate possible legal exposure. A former president can still face scrutiny, and as a civilian he is subject to the laws of the land that he currently addresses with a sense of impunity. Hence the need for a presidential pardon being negotiated prior to stepping down.

Bottom line: The chances that Donald Trump might resign rather than endure a hostile Congress isn’t very likely. He doesn’t want to look like a loser in the history books. At 80, he’s thinking about his legacy more now than ever.

Should Democrats capture one or both chambers next week, the more plausible outcome is two years of bitter political warfare, investigations, veto confrontations, and competing accusations of obstruction.

Nevertheless, a resignation scenario cannot be categorically dismissed. A combination of overwhelming electoral losses, declining Republican support, personal exhaustion, and an attractive succession arrangement involving Vance could conceivably alter Trump's calculations.

Ultimately, Trump may find it easier to fight a Congress he cannot control than to surrender a presidency he fought so hard to regain. And that could make the final two years of his presidency among the most contentious in modern American political history.

See you at the Ballot Box!