The Buck Stops Somewhere Else

When Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives in three weeks, one thing is almost certain: Donald Trump will not accept any responsibility for the loss. Instead, he will blame House Speaker Mike Johnson for losing the House.

After all, Trump will need a scapegoat, and Johnson is perfectly positioned to become the sacrificial lamb.

Trump has spent decades cultivating an image of himself as a winner. Whether in business, television, or politics, his personal brand has always depended on the perception that success follows wherever he goes. Therefore, this inevitable defeat will require an explanation that places responsibility squarely on someone else's shoulders.

Johnson presents an especially convenient target.

As Speaker, Johnson has been responsible for managing the Republican majority, advancing legislation, maintaining party discipline, and helping vulnerable incumbents survive difficult elections. When Democrats capture the House, Trump will argue that Johnson failed at all four.

The irony is that Johnson has spent much of his speakership accommodating Trump's political demands. But loyalty to Trump has rarely guaranteed protection when political fortunes sour.

Trump's argument is going to be as straightforward as his word salad style permits: He provided the vision, the agenda, the endorsements, and the political energy. Johnson was supposed to translate those advantages into congressional victories. When Republicans lose, Trump will say, Johnson MUST have failed to deliver.

Never mind that midterm elections frequently punish the president's party. Never mind that voters are reacting negatively to Trump’s war, higher prices for gas and groceries, overall inflation, economic uncertainty, presidential graft and controversies, or dissatisfaction with ICE and other Republican policies. Such explanations would require Trump to acknowledge that his own leadership might have contributed to the outcome.

That is an admission that his narcissistic personality simply won’t allow.

The warning signs are already visible. An October Pew Research Center survey found Democrats leading Republicans by eight percentage points in congressional voting preferences, while Trump's approval rating has fallen to 30%. The Hill projects the Democrats taking 235 seats in this election, with 218 needed for a majority.

These numbers suggest that a Republican defeat reflect dissatisfaction with the president himself, rather than just with Johnson's leadership.

Of course, Republicans marching in lockstep with any whim of Trump’s doesn’t help their cause.

Johnson, meanwhile, is preparing for the probability of defeat. On October 8 he told Fox News correspondent Aishah Hasnie that he might leave politics and start a lawn care business if Republicans lose control of the House. Then on October 12 he told CBS News that he intended to remain Republican leader even if Democrats captured the House.

But Johnson's ambitions may ultimately depend less on voters or his congressional colleagues than on Trump's willingness to defend him.

Imagine the morning after an election in which Democrats have won the majority, with the odds leaning towards a much bigger margin than the three-vote majority Johnson has had to work with. Trump will claim that Republican candidates failed to campaign aggressively enough, that Johnson mishandled the legislative agenda, and/or that congressional leadership failed to communicate the administration's accomplishments.

Not surprisingly, each explanation shares one essential characteristic: The president has shifted blame to someone else and refuses to acknowledge the millions of people voting against him and everything he has imposed on the American people.

Meaning Johnson could find himself defending policies he helped advance while being criticized by the very president whose agenda he worked to implement.

There’s also a larger lesson here concerning the political dangers of unquestioning loyalty. A leader who makes himself indispensable to a president also makes himself available to absorb that president's failures.

I should note, though, that none of this is cast in concrete. Republicans could retain the House, or Trump could choose to support Johnson even after a defeat.

But recognizing that Democrats will almost certainly prevail – and that anyone reading this post can improve those chances by voting out every single Republican up and down the ballot - Johnson can soon expect to discover what countless others have already learned over the decades: that Trump's definition of loyalty is decidedly one-sided.

Because in Trump's political universe, victory always belongs only to Donald Trump. And defeat, which signifies you’re a loser, is somebody else’s responsibility.

Guess what, Speaker Johnson: you’re about to discover that somebody is YOU!

It’s only 20 days to election day, folks. See you at the ballot box!